Independent market-research firms do not agree on a single growth number for North American online gambling, but several of the most frequently cited forecasts cluster within a point or two of each other, close to an 11.5% compound annual growth rate.
The North America Online Gambling Market is projected to expand from USD 37 billion in 2025 to USD 71 billion by 2031, representing an 11.48% forecast CAGR.
That modeled trajectory sits alongside a very real, already-reported number:
$78.62 Billion in commercial gaming revenue in 2025, 9.1% higher than 2024.
This article separates the forward-looking projection from the regulator-verified data and explains where the growth is actually concentrated.
Key takeaways
- Several research firms independently model North America’s online gambling CAGR between roughly 11% and 12% over various forecast windows, with
Ken Research putting the figure at 11.48% CAGR from 2025 to 2031
and
Custom Market Insights projecting 11.3% CAGR from 2022 to 2032
. - The underlying market is already large and growing fast in actuals:
US commercial gaming revenue reached a record $78.72 billion in 2025, a 9.2% increase over the previous year, according to the AGA’s Commercial Gaming Revenue Tracker
. - iGaming, not sports betting, is now the fastest-expanding vertical:
iGaming reached $10.74 billion in revenue (+27.6%) and delivered $2.59 billion in taxes, a 36.9% increase
. - Growth is geographically lopsided.
Michigan, New Jersey and Pennsylvania continued to account for almost 90% of nationwide igaming revenue
, while most states still have no regulated online casino option at all. - Canada’s Ontario market is outgrowing the US average, with
the total value of all cash wagers placed around $98.3 billion in 2025, up 26% year over year, while operators’ combined NAGGR amounted to $4.0 billion
.
Table of contents
Where the 11.5% figure comes from
No single regulator publishes a “North America CAGR” figure — it is always a modeled estimate built by a research firm from a chosen base year, a chosen forecast window, and a chosen product scope (online-only versus online-plus-land-based). That explains why published numbers for the same region range from roughly 9% to over 15%. The table below lines up several recent estimates.
| Research firm | Forecast window | Base value | Projected value | CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ken Research | 2025–2031 | $37.0B | $71.0B | 11.48% |
| Custom Market Insights | 2022–2032 | $11.86B | $34.69B | 11.3% |
| Grand View Research | 2025–2030 | $16.56B (2024) | $32.95B | 12.2% |
| Mordor Intelligence | 2026–2031 | $30.27B | $61.57B | 15.28% |
Forecast growth remains below the 24.24% historical CAGR because the market is moving beyond its initial legalization cycle
, according to Ken Research’s modeling — a reasonable way to read nearly all of these figures: North America grew explosively off a near-zero base after the Supreme Court’s 2018 sports betting decision, and the forecasts above describe deceleration toward a more normal, still-healthy double-digit growth rate rather than a new acceleration.
Mobile revenue share is expected to rise from 84% in 2025 to approximately 90% by 2031 as native applications, instant deposits, live betting and personalized game discovery become the principal engagement interfaces
, which is one of the structural reasons analysts expect growth to persist even as legalization slows.
The US engine: record revenue, narrow footprint
Forecasts aside, the hardest number available is the regulator-reported one.
The U.S. commercial casino gaming industry reported record-breaking revenue of more than $78 billion in 2025, driven by growth across the traditional land-based casino, sports betting and internet gaming markets.
34 of 38 States plus D.C. set annual records for commercial gaming revenue
, and
$17.86 billion in gaming tax revenue was generated by commercial gaming, 12.3% higher than 2024
.
| Vertical | 2025 revenue | YoY change |
|---|---|---|
| Traditional casino (land-based) | $50.94B | +2.3% |
| Sports betting | ~$17.0B | +22.8% |
| iGaming (online casino/poker) | $10.74B | +27.6% |
| Total commercial gaming | $78.62–78.72B | +9.1–9.2% |
The split matters for anyone trying to interpret an aggregate “North America” CAGR: land-based casino revenue, which is still the largest single component, is growing in low single digits, while the digital verticals are growing far faster.
iGaming brought in $10.7 billion, climbing 27.6%
—
the fastest-growing segment for the third consecutive year and the first time the category has surpassed $10 billion
. But that growth is not evenly distributed across the country:
Michigan, New Jersey and Pennsylvania continued to account for almost 90% of nationwide igaming revenue, although Delaware, Rhode Island and West Virginia recorded the strongest growth rates
. Most US states still have no legal online casino product at all — only sports betting, land-based gaming, or neither — which is precisely why forward-looking models assume further legalization will keep pushing the regional CAGR above what a mature, fully-legalized market would deliver.
A newer variable complicates the picture:
the AGA estimates that prediction markets offering sports event contracts have diverted more than $500 million in potential sports betting tax revenue to date
, and separately
the American Gaming Association estimated that illegal gambling operations, including offshore sportsbooks and unregulated online casinos, generate approximately $53.9 billion in annual revenue, resulting in more than $15 billion in lost state tax revenue
. Both figures represent potential upside for the regulated market’s growth rate if enforcement or legalization closes those gaps — and downside risk if they don’t. For a broader look at how legalization status shapes revenue outcomes, see our licensing and jurisdictions hub.
Ontario as the regulatory blueprint
Canada is the clearest illustration of how a newly opened, competitive online market behaves before it matures.
By geography, the United States contributed 79.05% share in 2025, while Canada registered the fastest climb at 15.82% CAGR, thanks to province-level regulatory harmonization.
Ontario, the only Canadian province with a fully open competitive iGaming model, posted its fourth consecutive year of growth in calendar 2025:
Ontario’s licensed iGaming operators collectively handled almost $100 billion in wagering activity, with the total value of all cash wagers placed around $98.3 billion, up 26% year over year, while operators’ combined NAGGR amounted to $4.0 billion over the 12 months
.
That was 34% more than Ontario’s licensed online casino, sports betting and peer-to-peer poker platforms took in 2024.
Fiscal-year reporting from the regulator itself confirms the same trend from a different angle:
total gaming revenue was $3.2 billion for FY2024-25, a 32% increase over 2023-24
, with
casino gaming revenue up 36% and betting revenue up 23% over the same period
. Ontario’s growth rate is running well ahead of the blended North America estimates in the table above, which is consistent with what typically happens in the first several years after a jurisdiction opens a competitive, multi-operator online market — a pattern we also tracked in our analysis of Brazil’s newly regulated market.
Mexico and the rest of the region
Mexico remains a small contributor to North America’s totals but is one of the region’s structurally fastest-growing pieces.
The Mexico online gambling market generated a revenue of USD 1,351.9 million in 2025 and is expected to reach USD 3,606.5 million by 2033
,
growing at a CAGR of 13.1% from 2026 to 2033
— faster than most US and Canada estimates, though off a far smaller base.
In terms of revenue, Mexico accounted for 1.5% of the global online gambling market in 2025.
Mexico is currently revising its gambling laws to enhance online sector regulation, aiming to align with broader industry standards
, which is the kind of regulatory catalyst that has historically preceded growth-rate spikes elsewhere in the region, including in Ontario and Brazil.
Drivers and headwinds behind the curve
The case for North America sustaining an above-global-average CAGR rests on a handful of concrete, verifiable trends rather than marketing language:
- Channel mix shift.
Mobile revenue share is expected to rise from 84% in 2025 to approximately 90% by 2031
, and mobile products typically carry higher engagement and retention than desktop. - Segment rotation toward iGaming.
Casino gaming is forecast to compound at a 17.92% CAGR through 2031, attributed to operators embracing immersive live dealer experiences and forging partnerships with branded content
, a faster rate than sports betting’s already-large base. - Incremental legalization. Every additional state or province that permits online casino products adds a step-change to regional revenue, which is baked into every forecast reviewed above.
- Channel competition from unregulated supply.
Illegal gambling operations generate an estimated $53.9 billion in annual US revenue
, a pool of spend that could migrate into the regulated CAGR if enforcement improves, or continue suppressing it if it doesn’t. - Prediction markets. The emergence of event-contract trading platforms as sports-betting substitutes is new enough that none of the CAGR models above fully price in its long-run effect on regulated sportsbook revenue.
Readers tracking how these dynamics affect operator economics and payment flows may also find our macro economics of iGaming hub and 2026–2030 horizon coverage useful background.
How it compares globally
Set against the rest of the world, North America’s projected growth rate is solid but not exceptional — it is close to the global average for online gambling, not dramatically above it.
The global online gambling market size was valued at USD 88.0 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow from USD 97.7 billion in 2026 to USD 202.8 billion by 2033, at a CAGR of 11.0% from 2026 to 2033
.
Europe’s online gaming industry dominated globally in 2025, accounting for over 41% of the global share
— a point explored in more depth in our deep dive into Europe’s share of global gambling revenue. What distinguishes North America in this comparison is not an unusually high growth rate but a large and still-expanding addressable base: most US states and several Canadian provinces have not yet opened a competitive online casino market, which is not true of most of Western Europe. That remaining legalization runway, more than any single demand-side trend, is what keeps North America’s modeled CAGR in the same double-digit range as fast-growing emerging markets like Mexico and Brazil, despite North America already being a mature, high-revenue region in absolute dollar terms.
Frequently asked questions
Does an 11.5% CAGR guarantee North America will keep growing at that rate?
No. A CAGR is a smoothed average calculated between two points in a model, not a guaranteed annual growth path. The estimates in this article range from roughly 9% to over 15% depending on the firm, base year, and product scope, which shows how sensitive these projections are to methodology rather than a single settled consensus.
Which forecast should I trust most?
None in isolation. Regulator-reported actuals, such as the AGA’s Commercial Gaming Revenue Tracker and iGaming Ontario’s quarterly filings, are the most reliable ground truth because they report what happened rather than what might happen. Forward-looking CAGR models are useful for direction and relative comparison across regions, not as precise single-year predictions.
Is growth happening evenly across US states and Canadian provinces?
No. Online casino revenue in the US is heavily concentrated: Michigan, New Jersey and Pennsylvania account for almost 90% of nationwide iGaming revenue. Most states have not legalized online casino products at all, and Ontario remains the only Canadian province with a fully open, competitive iGaming market.
How does North America’s growth rate compare with Latin America?
Latin American markets such as Brazil and Mexico are growing from a much smaller revenue base, so percentage growth rates there can look similar or higher even though absolute dollar growth in North America is far larger. See our coverage of Brazil’s regulated market for a direct comparison.
What could cause North America to undershoot these projections?
Slower-than-expected state-by-state legalization, continued diversion of spend to unregulated offshore operators, and the unresolved regulatory status of sports-event prediction markets are the three factors most likely to pull actual growth below the modeled CAGR range.
Methodology
GamblScout.com’s algorithm cross-references publicly filed regulator data — including the American Gaming Association’s Commercial Gaming Revenue Tracker and provincial filings such as iGaming Ontario’s quarterly reports — against multiple third-party market-research CAGR models to flag where projections and actuals diverge. Our data scraping engine ingests these filings on a recurring schedule, and our NLP sentiment layer flags regulatory announcements that could shift a jurisdiction’s growth trajectory before the next market-research cycle catches up. For a fuller explanation of how these signals feed our scoring, visit the Regional Deep Dives hub.
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